WNBA's Seattle Storm and Atlanta Dream look to cash as road dogs on Friday

June 12, 2009 by Reload

Seattle travels to Minnesota to face the Lynx in a key early season matchup on Friday night, with Lauren Jackson and Sue Bird ready to carry the Storm to the upset win.

Friday night in the WNBA contains a solid four game card of action and I like a couple of road underdogs here to get the money in the Seattle Storm and Atlanta Dream.

NBA's Storm and Dream look to cash as road dogs on Friday

The marquee matchup in the league has the 2-1 Seattle Storm visiting the 3-0 Minnesota Lynx.  With the WNBA power rankings coming out on the league’s website yesterday, the Lynx were ranked No. 1 thanks to their undefeated record and three impressive wins showcasing some real star power on offense.  But right behind them at No. 2 are the Seattle Storm who started the season with two big wins against the Sacramento Monarchs before losing on Tuesday night to the Indiana Fever.

Like any other sport, power rankings do not always mean everything.  And anyone who has followed the WNBA power rankings over the years from the league knows that it is rare for a team to stay in the top spot for long because of how tough the schedule can be week in and week out.  But tonight’s game is certainly huge for both teams and I am going with the Seattle Storm to get the cover here.

Although the Minnesota Lynx seem like a tough team to go against right now with starting off the season so hot, I am not having fear doing it here.   In fact, last season the Lynx got off to the same surprising type of start winning their first five games – but they faded after that and I think the first loss comes tonight.  On Tuesday, I wrote right here on SBR’s front page that the Seattle Storm’s 2-0 winning streak would be snapped when visiting the Fever in Indiana for a variety of reasons and after being right about that, I feel it will be the Storm who ironically end the winning streak of the Lynx tonight.

Even with the Lynx starting out the season as the top offense in the league averaging 95 points a game, they will have to be ready for the Storm’s top defense in the league giving up an average of only 68 points a game.  Like any sport, defense wins championships – and it also gets the pointspread covered throughout a season.  I also feel that it will be hard for the Lynx to bring the same intensity they had when beating the LA Sparks at home just two nights ago.  Facing another top contending conference opponent in the Storm quickly after their matchup with LA will have its difficulty and makes it a bad spot for Minnesota here.   Seimone Augustus certain gets it done for the Lynx putting the ball in the hoop and grabbing a lot of rebounds, but like the past couple of seasons with the Lynx – sooner or later her efforts are just not enough no matter how much she lights up the board.

With the Storm coming into this one off of a loss in Indiana on Tuesday, I feel they will really bring their A-game tonight instead of how things worked out in that spot.  Despite losing in the Conseco Fieldhouse, the Storm still shot 49% from the field and they should get their share of good looks at the hoop in Minnesota tonight.  In fact, the Lynx defense will clearly be the weakest one they have faced this season and last year Sue Bird of the Storm had one of her best games in Minnesota with 22 points scored as Seattle won on the road there.  That was a victory that star center Lauren Jackson of the Storm did not play in and the Lynx will have their hands even more full with her in the lineup tonight.

Jackson scored 34 points against the Lynx when Seattle hosted Minnesota last year in an easy 25 point blowout win.  I also feel Seattle has the stronger bench of these two teams and that will make a difference down the stretch in a big conference battle like this one.  Swin Cash put in 28 minutes off the bench against the Fever on Tuesday and seems in mid-season form already.

Pinnacle Sports opened the line for this game favoring the Lynx by 2½ points and it has gone up to 4 thanks to early bettors backing the hot winning streak of Minnesota.  But remember that these early wagers are at lower maximums than what will be allowed today.  Sometimes a few individuals out there may be steaming the line one way with smaller maximum bets only to slam bigger bets the other way later on once a more favorable number is out there.  I do feel Seattle will win the game straight up tonight but getting 4 points in case it is close at the buzzer cannot hurt – especially with the 3-pointers that the Lynx could sneak in late.

My second selection for Friday night brings us to a less exciting Eastern Conference battle between the Atlanta Dream and Chicago Sky.  About the only thing any WNBA fan cares about with this game will be that it is televised on NBA TV so tune in if you decide to put some money on it as I suggest.  I am going with the Atlanta Dream to get the cover here and possibly steal a win in Chi-town.

The Sky opened their season last Saturday and gave up 102 points to Minnesota.  Even with the home court advantage tonight, it is hard favoring a team against anyone after starting out the season with poor defense and now a long layoff without a game.  Some backers of the Sky here might look at the stat sheet and think it was impressive they made 50% of their shots but it means nothing if you let the other team make 53% of theirs which is what the Lynx did.  Last season, Chicago won both of their home matchups against the Dream but don’t let that fool you either – Atlanta has some solid changes in their lineup this season.

Leading the way for Atlanta has been Chamique Holdsclaw and it’s been quite a story seeing her back in the WNBA this year.  She played for 46 minutes in the Dream’s opening game of the season last Saturday and put in 23 points as Atlanta beat the Indiana Fever in double overtime.  Even with it being such a grueling game, the Dream faced a surprisingly tough Washington Mystics team the next day and held their own only losing by 6 points.  Michelle Snow has also joined the Dream this season and Atlanta’s Erika Desouza is currently the WNBA’s second biggest rebounder averaging 11.5 of them in each game behind only Ruth Riley.  Sancho Lyttle and Michelle Snow are new additions to the Dream this season thanks to the Comets folding and Lyttle is the only WNBA player right now in the Top 5 for both steals and blocks per game.

This game opened as a Pick ’Em at Pinnacle and for whatever reason the early steam has strongly backed the 0-1 Chicago Sky moving this line up to 5 points quickly.  I cannot imagine anyone lined up around a corner wanting to lay any points with a team like the Sky right now when it is clear Atlanta has brought more to the table so far this season with their re-vamped lineup.  Both teams realize that every game will be critical in battling for playoff spots in the Eastern Conference and each certainly see it as a win-able game against the other.  But for reasons I have mentioned above, I think Atlanta has the right mix of new talent to get it done this season and should not be this big of an underdog in Chicago.

Indiana Fever -2½ against the Seattle Storm on ESPN2

June 9, 2009 by Reload

If you're looking for some hoops to warm you up for Game 3 of the NBA Finals, tune into ESPN2 tonight for the Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm in WNBA action.

Tired of the NBA Finals already?  Give the WNBA a shot tonight with the Indiana Fever small favorites at home against the Seattle Storm on ESPN2.

Indiana Fever -2½ against the Seattle Storm on ESPN2

The WNBA season tipped off this past weekend and the betting action already has bookmakers running for cover.  Although the maximums allowed by bookmakers on WNBA action are lower than other sports, it is a league you can grind out a nice profit by zeroing in on the right games.  Most bookmakers out there do not put enough thought into the lines they make and simply look at losses on the WNBA at lower maximums as more of a marketing cost – similar to wagering on NASCAR and American Idol.  But that means it’s your chance to take advantage.

Some of SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks are among the best in the world for betting the WNBA.  In recent years, the sportsbooks out there with the earliest lines on WNBA games have been Pinnacle Sports, Bookmaker and The Greek.  It can be good to bet the lines early as a dime or two in action can move the sides or totals quicker than you can say, “Lisa Leslie!”  5Dimes offers reduced -105 juice on WNBA games and is a must-have sportsbook in your arsenal.

Tuesday’s game features two teams that had their opening weekends go in opposite directions.  On the west coast, the Seattle Storm started out their season sweeping the Sacramento Monarchs in two home-and-home matchups.  Meanwhile the Indiana Fever were upset in a double overtime loss visiting the Atlanta Dream and got crushed in their home opener on Sunday against the Minnesota Lynx.  So tonight it’s a battle of 2-0 against 0-2, and that should make it easy to figure out who will win tonight, right?  Wrong – because this is the WNBA.

Although Seattle’s wins were an impressive start to the season, I do not think they were tested much in either matchup against Sacramento.  As talented as the Storm’s center Lauren Jackson is, facing inexperience in the middle against the Monarchs was a cakewalk this weekend compared to what is coming in Indiana on Tuesday.  In fact, Jackson will have to go against Yo-Yo-Yolanda Griffith when facing the Fever for at least some of the game.  Griffith played in Seattle last season and knows a thing or two about Jackson playing both with her that season and against her on the Monarchs in Western Conference battles of the past.  And having Griffith on the bench while Tammy Sutton-Brown starts in the middle will be a 1-2 punch at center for the Fever that will give Jackson all she can handle down the stretch at the Conseco Fieldhouse.

Speaking of Indiana’s home court, the Conseco Fieldhouse has been one of the toughest places to play for visiting opponents in the whole league.  Last season the LA Sparks came rolling into Indiana after starting the season 2-0 just like the Storm this year and lost to the Fever – their only loss of a five-game road trip that started their season.  All it will take is one big quarter by the Fever and you can turn out the lights here.

Although both teams are in a bad spot with it being their third game in four days, I feel the Storm are in a worse situation.  Seattle will be coming in overconfident after two big wins against a Western Conference rival like the Monarchs and now have to travel east facing an underachieving Indiana team hungry for their first win.

The line for this game opened at Pinnacle Sports with the Fever favored by 4½ points and Storm action made it quickly drop to 2.  It even came out later than usual due to the Fever’s Tamika Catchings being questionable, but that’s not stopping me from betting the Fever.  Although Catchings being out might have made a bigger difference in past years, it did not matter last season as the Fever won five of their first seven games last season without Tamika in the lineup.  And if Catchings sits, maybe it opens things up for an 0-2 team to find that spark from the bench a little.

Tully Bevilaqua had some good outings against the Storm last year including more steals than anyone else on the court when Indiana hosted Seattle.  It’s not too often you can get a team like the Indiana Fever laying a low number at home and it could go even lower so keep an eye out on SBRlines.com for getting the best number you can.  With a 2-0 team getting points against an 0-2 team, early action has gone the way I would expect for that reason - but the line drop just means more value to back Indiana here so have no fear. Tune into ESPN2 on Tuesday night and take the Indiana Fever minus the points!

Take Charitable Man and Zito's longshots in the Belmont Stakes

June 5, 2009 by Reload

It’s time for the final jewel of the Triple Crown on Saturday as a field of 10 horses hit Belmont Park for the 1.5 mile Belmont Stakes. And that means it’s also time to check all of your offshore sportsbook balances to make sure you are ready to unload on the action!

Living in the northeast, I have followed NYRA racing action for my whole life and always look forward to this huge day on the racing calendar. The Belmont Stakes is not about mint juleps or nice outfits that lovely ladies at the track are wearing – it’s about cold hard New York cash! Are you ready to step up to the betting windows and take it? No chance for a Triple Crown winner this year, but there’s nothing stopping you from cashing in big on Saturday!

There is always a lot to take advantage of on the big race days like this one. The betting public pours in money from all over and it can create some advantageous overlays in the odds available for your wagers. Remember also that better odds can be available through offshore sportsbooks than what is on the toteboard at the track itself. Quite a few offshore sportsbooks, including SBR top-rated ones like BetJamaica.com and Bookmaker.com, also offer rebates on your wagers – so be sure to check everything out and get the best bang for your buck!

Although the Belmont Stakes can be one of the toughest races of the year to handicap, I have looked over the whole field considerably and feel there is some money to be made. First off, I am throwing out Mine That Bird right off the top. This horse has gone from being an enormous longshot in the Kentucky Derby last month to being a 2-1 morning line favorite in the Belmont Stakes. Whether you like his chances or not, lots of value has been lost and any backers of Calvin Borel’s mount in this one will be paying a premium at those betting windows on Saturday. I also feel that with the 1.5 mile distance, there is always still a lot that can go wrong for a Kentucky Derby winner in this race no matter how good they look on paper – especially at a track like Belmont Park. So let’s look elsewhere for a score on Saturday!

Here are my top three horses that I advise spreading your Belmont Stakes bankroll out on:

#6 Charitable Man: Although I advise going against Mind That Bird because of the short odds it would pay, I feel one horse among those with short odds worth taking a look at is Charitable Man! A very impressive win in the Peter Pan should have this horse ready to take the Belmont Stakes winner circle on Saturday with no excuses. Alan Garcia has been aboard for all four mounts that Charitable Man has had and he would not stay along for the ride if there was not a big payday coming for it in the Belmont Stakes! Charitable Man was also clearly bred for the big distance with a horse like Lemon Drop Kid as his father, who won the Belmont Stakes eight years ago with Jose Santos aboard. Some may be concerned about the 7th place klunker tossed in at the Blue Grass back in April, but I will throw that out here considering it was the first race off a long layoff and that the Peter Pan proved Charitable Man is back in top form. That win in the Peter Pan was the second victory at Belmont Park for Charitable Man and the third one will come on Saturday!

#9 Miner’s Escape: Only one horse in this race has two straight wins coming into this race and that’s Miner’s Escape! And how about both wins being at 1 1/8 miles?! You won’t find that often in a horse within a field for the Belmont Stakes and especially at 15-1 morning line odds. Sure the races were not against the kind of competition that others in this field have recently faced, but how can you go wrong at long odds when a horse this good has A.P. Indy in his blood? Like I talked about above with Charitable Man having Lemon Drop Kid as his father, Miner’s Escape was born to win the Belmont just like A.P. Indy won it 17 years ago! Not only has Miner’s Escape notched two straight wins at big distances, but also hit the top speed figures of his career in those races. A Beyer speed figure of 89 may not mean much when you have others in the field with higher ratings, but the recent increase of performance here shows me that this horse could be peaking at the right time for trainer Nick Zito!

#10 Brave Victory: In addition to Miner’s Escape, Brave Victory is also trained by Nick Zito and worth a solid look at 15-1 morning line odds. A nice 1-2 longshot punch for Zito here in the Belmont Stakes as I feel he could possibly use Miner’s Escape as a frontrunner to tire the rest of the field out and have Brave Victory come zooming by in the stretch for a nice close to bravely steal the race! Brave Victory finished 3rd in the Peter Pan running a decent race there and Maragh stays aboard him here. Having that been the longest race of Brave Victory’s career, I feel there is a chance to improve more here if the right trip can happen as the distance increases even further. In addition to the Peter Pan, Brave Victory has had two other races at Belmont and no other horse in the race can say they have three outings at Belmont under their belt. Dealing with 1.5 miles of a race is hard enough – but other horses will have more difficulty having not had as much experience with that long Belmont Park homestretch.

Good luck to everyone on Saturday with the Belmont Stakes and have a great summer of wagering here on SBR!

 
 
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